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Cancun Forum: Hurricane Felix

In a Little...
9,018 forum posts
 Hurricane Felix 
Destination Expert   What's this?
for Cancun

TS Felix as of this post has just been upgraded to Hurricane status and is now known as Hurricane Felix, a Category One Hurricane expected to intensify in strength in the near future.

Currently, all but one of the tracking models are showing this storm to be well south of Cancun in its projections.

wunderground.com/tropical/…a_topad

There appears to be LIMITED to NO Threat To Cancun at this time.

Below is the NHC Report at 8 PM;

Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 01, 2007

...Felix becomes a hurricane...new watch for Jamaica...

at 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a

tropical storm watch for Jamaica. A tropical storm watch means

that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch

area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the islands of

Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning means that

tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area

within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should

closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible

inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued

by your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Felix was

located near latitude 12.6 north...longitude 66.0 west or about

155 miles...250 km east-northeast of Bonaire and about

270 miles...435 km...east of Aruba.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this

general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

On this track...Felix will be passing near or to the north of the

islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao late tonight or early Sunday

morning.

Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum

sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with

higher gusts. This makes Felix a category one hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is

expected during the next 24 hours.

Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on board the

hurricane hunter indicate that hurricane force winds extend outward

up to 15 miles...25 km...from the center and tropical storm force

winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km...primarily to the

north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter

is 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the offshore

islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of

Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.

Repeating the 800 PM AST position...12.6 N...66.0 W. Movement

toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.

Minimum central pressure...999 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National

Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Beven

In a Little...
9,018 forum posts
1. Re: Hurricane Felix
Destination Expert   What's this?
for Cancun

OK, the most recent on this one has changed once again, there's now tracking in a heavier Northwest direction with one model of five, excluding the NHC Model, sending this one up through the Straights of the Yucatan by Weds/Thurs of next week.

The four other tracking models including the higher reliability GFDL are maintaining a "Dean" like landfall in Northern Belize- Majahual/CostaMaya Mexico, in the Southern Yucatan.

This storm is expected to go (Cat3) over the next 72 hours and the landfall projections are heavily influenced by whether a weather ridge from the Gulf of Mexico is able to keep the storm westerly and on course of the four models and the NHC Model.

Folks with interests in the Yucatan, along the Mexican Caribbean should continue to monitor the storm over the next few days.

Once again, Cancun currently does not appear at risk at this time.

In a Little...
9,018 forum posts
2. Re: Hurricane Felix
Destination Expert   What's this?
for Cancun

Currently, from the Mexican Meteorological Center; due to Hurricane Felix's path, special attention is required for the Yucatan Peninsula.

The Government of the State of Quintana Roo has now gone to its Alert Status and has called a "Blue Alert" which indicates "low" danger at this time.

The latest NHC Report at 11 PM is indicating a continued westerly movement and a center track to Northern Belize, just south of the Mexican/ Yucatan border, well south of Cancun.

The tracking models have not updated as of this post and still indicate the NOGAPS model with a northwest path towards the Straights of the Yucatan, the GDFL model indicating a Honduras path and UKMet centering on the Southern Yucatan, near the already hurricane ravaged area of Costa Maya.

Hurricane Felix is expected to be a Category Two storm sometime Sunday, September 2rd and potentially a Category Three by Monday the 3rd.

Summerville...
65 forum posts
3. Re: Hurricane Felix

Hey Danger, If this storm stays on track for Belize, do they historically close the airport in Cancun? I am suppose to fly in on Thursday!!

In a Little...
9,018 forum posts
4. Re: Hurricane Felix
Destination Expert   What's this?
for Cancun

No guarantees on the Cancun Airport situation but if the path stays towards the Belize tracking, it's likely the Cancun Airport will remain open to flight arrivals and departures.

Summerville...
65 forum posts
5. Re: Hurricane Felix

Thanks for the responce. I will keep checking

Colima...
2,921 forum posts
6. Re: Hurricane Felix

Hey amigo!! Gracias for keeping up with the weather in mejico, it looks like we have another sucker creeping up in the Peninsula once again..

I am supposed to be in Playa Del Carmen in about 10 dias from today..I guess I will be checking around here very often..

I will do my best to contribute to the cause if I get to go, if GOD permits it...people in Mejico always appreciate the help from others with an open heart..I will be praying for them..

Alex..

In a Little...
9,018 forum posts
7. Re: Hurricane Felix
Destination Expert   What's this?
for Cancun

Hola Alex, here's hoping things are well and a trip to PDC sounds excellent. Hopefully, the current weather gurus at the NHC have the track right on this one at this point and the Yucatan will be spared, particularly those already hit by Hurricane Dean. Unfortunately with these things, some one's good news is usually someone else's bad news, Godspeed to all of them, whatever nation they may live in.

Charlotte...
559 forum posts
8. Re: Hurricane Felix

Arrived at Sun Palace morning of 1 SEP. Beautiful day here in Cancun and none of the people we have spoken with so far have expressed any concerns whatsoever over Felix, only some of the new arrivals.

Will try to check in with the mood here as long as this old laptop holds out. Battery is shot and has to be plugged in to work

In a Little...
9,018 forum posts
9. Re: Hurricane Felix
Destination Expert   What's this?
for Cancun

Look forward to positive updates (hopefully) there MNK, thanks, and I hope you enjoy Cancun. ;-)

In a Little...
9,018 forum posts
10. Re: Hurricane Felix
Destination Expert   What's this?
for Cancun

The 2:00 AM NHC Public Advisory for Hurricane Felix, still a category One Hurricane and strengthening over the Caribbean. The tracking models and projections show little change as of this time with the GFDL model moving slightly northward. The still troubling NOGAPS Model is expected to update at 8AM.

wunderground.com/tropical/…a_topad

Below the NHC advisory from a government agency, prepared for the public;

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023537.shtml?5day#contents

Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 02, 2007

...Felix a little stronger as its center begins to pass just north

of Bonaire...Curacao...and Aruba...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the

islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning

means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the

warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means

that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in

this case within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica. A tropical

storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible

within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should

closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor

products issued by your local weather office.

At 200 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located

near latitude 12.7 north...longitude 67.8 west or about 45 miles...

70 km...northeast of Bonaire and about 145 miles...235 km...

east of Aruba.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A general

motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected during the

next 24 hours. This motion will bring the center of Felix just

north of Bonaire...Curacao...and Aruba during the next several

hours.

Reports from a United States Air Force reconnaissance aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now at

least 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category

one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is

forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from

the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140

miles...220 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force

plane was 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over

the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles

islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.

Repeating the 200 am AST position...12.7 N...67.8 W. Movement

toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph.

Minimum central pressure...987 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at

500 am AST.

$$

Forecaster Knabb