Sorry Jim

I had to do it.

From the NHC:

Hurricane Felix Discussion Number 11

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

since the time of the last reconnaissance penetration of Felix at

23z...the satellite presentation has not changed appreciably...with

the highest objective Dvorak raw T numbers reaching t7.3 around

00z. Given no net trend in the satellite presentation since the

time of the last fix...the initial intensity is held at 145 kt.

The outflow pattern remains impressive...and Felix has yet to pass

over the very high heat content waters of the western Caribbean.

Latest microwave imagery does not show concentric eyewall

structure...so there could be a little more short-term

intensification. There do not appear to be any large-scale factors

to cause appreciable weakening until the hurricane interacts with

the land mass of Central America.

The initial motion is 280/18. There has been a slight acceleration

over the last 12 hours as Felix moves to the south of a deep-layer

anticyclone. This pattern is expected to break down only very

slightly over the next couple of days...enough only to slow the

forward speed a bit...before Felix moves to the south of additional

ridging in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Little change in heading is

expected over the next three days. After that...it remains unclear

whether there will be any interaction between the hurricane and a

mid-level trough forecast to be moving through the Southern Plains

and the Gulf states during days 4-5. Model guidance...which was in

good agreement six hours ago...is more diverse now. The major

model shift is with the GFS...which now keeps Felix over Central

America and out of the Bay of Campeche. The official forecast is

shifted a little bit southward...but still lies in the northern half

of the guidance envelope.

Dangers...you're correct...my apologies! Hurricane Felix definitely deserves the attention.Thanks again for all your imput!

Just an update from the Sun Palace in Cancun. Nice weather today, about a half hour rain shower around noon. Surf seems a little rougher than it was Saturday. Spoke with some of the employees of the hotel and one of the managers, no mention of any action to be taken due to Felix as of about 8:00 PM local time. Guest are still checking in and no one has bailed out early or cancelled according to the people I talked to.

Hope everyone travels and stays safe!

Just an up date from returning Gran Caribe Real Cancun, post Dean, Sand Bags post Wilma and Dean, Red flags to yellow on the beach, not from the room. OK, if you like the pool, then walk and over the sand bags. Just being honest for any first time travelers to the area as I was.

Just came accross this site, we are suppose to be going to Playa del Carmen on Wednesday the 5th, but heard the news, wonder if we will still be going on hols

Sue

Oh great! Flying from Cardiff on Wednesday 5th and just spotted news of this impending Hurricane.

Hope Punta Brava area is still in one piece when we get there!

We are flying from Cardiff as well on Wednesday, have you heard anything about the flight.

Sue

Hi Sue,

Haven't heard anything as yet and I noticed that it's still possible to book seats on the flight via Thomson's Web site.

I guess it will depend how the hurricane develops over the next 24 hours. It will probably be very windy in Cancun but fingers crossed it won't be bad enough for them to stop any flights into the airport.

Jonathan