The morning update of Hurricane Felix, a CAT 5 storm strengthening and growing currently in the Caribbean has the storm moving West-North-West, approximately 18 hours from the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua in Central America. The NHC tracking model has moved southward once again, indicating a probable landfall in Southern Belize on Wednesday, after skirting the coasts of Honduras and Guatemala.

The other major models have once again moved into a relatively close proximity of agreement with a southward adjustment. The UKMET Tracking Model indicates the most northerly track in Northern Belize, the NOGAPS Model is tracking South Central Belize and the GFDL Model is tracking yet further south through Honduras and Nicaragua.

The updated tracking is well south of major points of interest in the Mexican Caribbean and Cancun should be considered relatively low risk at this point in time, some 300 plus miles north of the most northerly track of any of the models. As such, the State of Quintana Roo remains on a "Low Danger" Alert status of "Green"

The Mexican Government continues to recommend all interests in the Yucatan to continue monitoring of the storm but at present, based on NHC tracking, minimal impact, if any, can be expected from Hurricane Felix to the Cancun area.

Hurricane Warnings and Watch Alerts have been posted by the NHC for the entire coast of Belize, the Eastern Coastline of Guatemala, the coast of Honduras and parts of Nicaragua.

Repeating though, at this time, Cancun and immediate area is of minimal risk, if any, based on current projections.

Just an update on this from the Governor of the State of Quintana Roo's Office, the local government has now gone to a "Yellow Alert" for Quintana Roo in Mexico and has cancelled school for Tuesday in some areas of the Southern part of the State.

Below, the translated statement from the Quintana Roo Governor's Office, a Mexican Public Service Announcement;

Chetumal, 3 of September. - The governor of the State, Felix González Canto, through State Advice of Civil defense, emitted this morning “the Yellow” alert (Danger moderate-approach preparation) of the System of Early Alert, before the presence of the hurricane “Felix” of category five in the Saffir-Simpson scale and that is located in the Caribbean Sea; also he announced the suspension of classes in the municipality White Othón P., as of this Tuesday.

In previous interview to the session of the State Council of Civil defense, the Governor of Quintana Roo, reiterated that given the proximity that has the State Capital, with the country of Belize and because the hurricanes have erratic trajectories stays a constant monitoreo of this meteor.

(Note: Cancun and major points of interest along the Mexican Caribbean are still believed to have minimal to no risk as of the current NHC projections but continued monitoring is necessary~ D)

Governor Felix is probably worried about his Chetumal house, again. Last time, he did the same as I did, he ran from Cozumel to Chetumal and right into the hurricane. Good thing for Felix is , he gets his picture in the paper and, since he has presidential aspirations, he loves that. But, I have to say, I think he has handled all the problems well.

Hurricane Felix Weakens to a Cat 4 Hurricane as of the 2PM EDT NHC Report; The powerful but smaller Hurricane Felix has weakened based on the most recent data from the NHC to a CAT 4 but continued fluctuations are expected and Felix could go back to a Cat 5 very quickly. Currently it is believed that Hurricane Felix is the fastest developing Cat 5 Hurricane in the history of hurricane monitoring in the Caribbean.

Tracking models from the NHC continue to indicate a a Southern Belize Landfall Wednesday morning and the other major tracking systems are coming more into alignment with a region of Central Belize south to Northern Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua, along the respective countries Caribbean coasts becoming the major focal points as of this time. Hurricane Warnings and Watch alerts continue for these areas.

Currently, the continued southern tracking indicates that Cancun and the Mexican Caribbean remains at low risk, if any for any major problems from Hurricane Felix should the tracking models hold up.

Despite the current NHC Reports, Quintana Roo remains on Yellow Alert, Low Danger, Monitoring Requested for the present time. People with interests in the Mexican Yucatan, particularly along the Southern Yucatan Caribbean Coast, should continue to monitor the storm as should people with interests in the inland areas of Tabasco and Chiapas.

Cancun and the surrounding regions appears at little to no risk at this time or in the foreseeable future unless Hurricane Felix makes a major unexpected change in its current movement.

mnkclt,

Please check your e mail. I sent you a PM.

Thank you !

Peace!!

Currently, the Yellow Alert remains for the Mexican Caribbean Coastal State of Quintana Roo and the NHC Projection and other major tracking models remain as earlier with a projected track well south of Cancun, an estimated 350-450 miles, and well south of almost all interests along the Mexican Caribbean. The current heading of the Hurricane is expected to be a southern Belize landfall sometime Wednesday.

At present, there is NO PROJECTED RISK TO CANCUN and the Riviera Maya as currently available through current information, or is there expected to be. I'll try and pass along brief updates for those following the storm, and post more detailed data if the situation should change.

As per the 8PM Update from the NHC Public Advisory;

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2007

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Felix approaches northeastern

Nicaragua and eastern Honduras...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas

northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border...and for Honduras from

Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane

Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the

warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect

life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Honduras west of Limon...for the

Caribbean coast of Guatemala...and for the entire coast of Belize.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Isla de Providencia.

At 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has

discontinued the tropical storm watch for Grand Cayman.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible

inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued

by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located

near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 205 miles...

325 km...east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras

border.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this

motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this

track...the center of Felix will be near the coasts of extreme

northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras early on Tuesday

morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher

gusts. Felix is currently a category four hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson scale. Felix is expected to remain a major

hurricane...at least category three...until it makes landfall...and

some restrengthening is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from

the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115

miles...185 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb...28.14 inches.

Storm surge flooding in excess of 18 feet above normal tide levels

along with large and dangerous battering waves is possible in areas

of onshore winds near the center of the Hurricane.

Felix is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rain across northern

Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua...with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-

threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...14.5 N...80.2 W. Movement

toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.

Minimum central pressure...953 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National

Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Franklin

Singer,

Replied via PM.

Cancun local area update. Another beautiful day around here. No rain, waves no larger than they have been the last few days, no excitement or advisories from the hotel staff. Released sea turtles on the beach tonight. All seems well for Cancun unless something drastic happens IMHO.

Released sea turtles on the beach tonight.

And back to school has begun...

Dangers was trying to help imo... others just rely on trust funds...