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Hurricane Felix |
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TS Felix as of this post has just been upgraded to Hurricane status and is now known as Hurricane Felix, a Category One Hurricane expected to intensify in strength in the near future. Currently, all but one of the tracking models are showing this storm to be well south of Cancun in its projections. wunderground.com/tropical/…a_topad There appears to be LIMITED to NO Threat To Cancun at this time. Below is the NHC Report at 8 PM; Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 01, 2007
...Felix becomes a hurricane...new watch for Jamaica...
at 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm watch for Jamaica. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located near latitude 12.6 north...longitude 66.0 west or about 155 miles...250 km east-northeast of Bonaire and about 270 miles...435 km...east of Aruba.
Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...Felix will be passing near or to the north of the islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Felix a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.
Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on board the hurricane hunter indicate that hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...25 km...from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km...primarily to the north of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.
Repeating the 800 PM AST position...12.6 N...66.0 W. Movement toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Beven
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Thanks Dangers for keeping us posted. My flight leaves for Cancun next Monday morning! | ||||||
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Hurricane Felix as of 7AM is once again a powerful CAT 5 Hurricane and is about to make landfall along the Northeastern Coast of Nicaragua near the Honduras border. As of this time, there is NO PROJECTED RISK TO CANCUN or the Riviera Maya or is there expected to be. Below the NHC Discussion, a Public Discussion Report; Hurricane Felix Discussion Number 16
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 04, 2007
After completing an eyewall replacement last night...Felix has again strengthened early this morning. The minimum central pressure...reported by a United States Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft...has fallen to 939 mb. The maximum flight-level wind during the past few hours was 148 kt...corresponding to 133 kt at the surface...and a surface wind estimate based on the low-layer mean wind of a dropsonde profile was 132 kt. Another dropsonde reported surface winds of 147 kt...but that is not likely representative of a sustained surface wind. The satellite presentation has been steadily becoming more impressive...Including in the few images since the last aircraft fix at 07z. Since the pressure and wind data from the aircraft were indicating strengthening...and given that objective Dvorak T-numbers from the most recent satellite images are approaching 7.0...Felix could reach category five status at any time prior to landfall. Felix continues generally westward but appears to be slowing down a little...and the initial motion estimate is now 270/14. The eye is only about three hours from making landfall along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua...likely just south of the border with Honduras. The ridge to the north of Felix should remain in place during the next three days...so a continued general westward motion is forecast with a slow Bend to the right. The official track closely follows the GFDL and GFS over Honduras and Guatemala through 48 hours...but it does not follow those models in later bringing Felix over the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Given that this relatively small hurricane will be interacting with the rugged terrain of Central America during the next couple of days...rapid weakening is forecast after the center crosses the coast...and dissipation is forecast after 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is based on the decay SHIPS model...but is a little lower due to the small size of Felix. It is important to emphasize...that this will not be just a coastal event. Very heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides could occur well inland and many hours or days after this morning's landfall.
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and as of 8am, it made landfall in "extreme northeastern nicaragua at category 5 strength" | ||||||
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Thanks for all the info, my flight leave tomorrow, so looks like we will be going. Thanks again sue | ||||||
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Another (and probably final) update from Sun Palace Cancun now that Felix has made landfall. Looks like another beautiful day here. Still have red flags on the beach but people are in both the ocean and the pools. Its sunny and hot, waves a little choppier than yesterday but not bad at all right now. Time to go check out the special drink of the day! Will come back on if anything drastic happens. Safe travels!. L8R | ||||||
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this time of year the ocean is almost always red flagged. Still usually swimable, but definitely a strong undertow. | ||||||
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we are to arrive on Saturday the 8th in cancun and staying at Moon Palace. will we have any weather problems from Felix? Thanks Ann B. St Louis, Mo. | ||||||
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We are arriving in Cancun on Saturday Sept. 8th will there be any problem with the weather from Hurricane Felix? Thanks. | ||||||
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Ann, you'll be fine, go and enjoy your vacation. ;-) | ||||||
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