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Cancun Forum: Hurricane Felix


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NurseinLA
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   In a Little Cafe...
   Joined: Feb 2003
   Forum posts: 8,766
   Travel map pins: 90 

Destination Expert  What's this?
for Cancun
Dangers
Posted on: 7:54 pm,September 01, 2007
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TS Felix as of this post has just been upgraded to Hurricane status and is now known as Hurricane Felix, a Category One Hurricane expected to intensify in strength in the near future.

Currently, all but one of the tracking models are showing this storm to be well south of Cancun in its projections.

wunderground.com/tropical/…a_topad

There appears to be LIMITED to NO Threat To Cancun at this time.

Below is the NHC Report at 8 PM;

Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 01, 2007

...Felix becomes a hurricane...new watch for Jamaica...

at 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a

tropical storm watch for Jamaica. A tropical storm watch means

that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch

area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the islands of

Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning means that

tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area

within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should

closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible

inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued

by your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Felix was

located near latitude 12.6 north...longitude 66.0 west or about

155 miles...250 km east-northeast of Bonaire and about

270 miles...435 km...east of Aruba.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this

general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

On this track...Felix will be passing near or to the north of the

islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao late tonight or early Sunday

morning.

Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum

sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with

higher gusts. This makes Felix a category one hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is

expected during the next 24 hours.

Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on board the

hurricane hunter indicate that hurricane force winds extend outward

up to 15 miles...25 km...from the center and tropical storm force

winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km...primarily to the

north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter

is 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the offshore

islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of

Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.

Repeating the 800 PM AST position...12.6 N...66.0 W. Movement

toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.

Minimum central pressure...999 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National

Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Beven

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   Los Angeles, California
   Joined: Jun 2003
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Destination Expert  What's this?
for Cancun
NurseinLA
Posted on: 3:13 am,September 04, 2007
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Thanks Dangers for keeping us posted. My flight leaves for Cancun next Monday morning!

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   In a Little Cafe...
   Joined: Feb 2003
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Destination Expert  What's this?
for Cancun
Dangers
Posted on: 7:13 am,September 04, 2007
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Hurricane Felix as of 7AM is once again a powerful CAT 5 Hurricane and is about to make landfall along the Northeastern Coast of Nicaragua near the Honduras border.

As of this time, there is NO PROJECTED RISK TO CANCUN or the Riviera Maya or is there expected to be.

Below the NHC Discussion, a Public Discussion Report;

Hurricane Felix Discussion Number 16

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 04, 2007

After completing an eyewall replacement last night...Felix has again

strengthened early this morning. The minimum central

pressure...reported by a United States Air Force hurricane hunter

aircraft...has fallen to 939 mb. The maximum flight-level wind

during the past few hours was 148 kt...corresponding to 133 kt at

the surface...and a surface wind estimate based on the low-layer

mean wind of a dropsonde profile was 132 kt. Another dropsonde

reported surface winds of 147 kt...but that is not likely

representative of a sustained surface wind. The satellite

presentation has been steadily becoming more impressive...Including

in the few images since the last aircraft fix at 07z. Since the

pressure and wind data from the aircraft were indicating

strengthening...and given that objective Dvorak T-numbers from the

most recent satellite images are approaching 7.0...Felix could

reach category five status at any time prior to landfall.

Felix continues generally westward but appears to be slowing down a little...and the initial motion estimate is now 270/14. The eye is only about three hours from making landfall along the coast of

northeastern Nicaragua...likely just south of the border with

Honduras. The ridge to the north of Felix should remain in place

during the next three days...so a continued general westward motion

is forecast with a slow Bend to the right. The official track

closely follows the GFDL and GFS over Honduras and Guatemala

through 48 hours...but it does not follow those models in later

bringing Felix over the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Given

that this relatively small hurricane will be interacting with the

rugged terrain of Central America during the next couple of

days...rapid weakening is forecast after the center crosses the

coast...and dissipation is forecast after 72 hours. The official

intensity forecast is based on the decay SHIPS model...but is a

little lower due to the small size of Felix. It is important to

emphasize...that this will not be just a coastal event. Very heavy

rains and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides could occur

well inland and many hours or days after this morning's landfall.

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   Long Beach, California
   Joined: Sep 2004
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Destination Expert  What's this?
for Cancun
BSQ
Posted on: 8:50 am,September 04, 2007
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and as of 8am, it made landfall in "extreme northeastern nicaragua at category 5 strength"

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   Wales UK
   Joined: Oct 2002
   Forum posts: 6
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Posted on: 10:01 am,September 04, 2007
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Thanks for all the info, my flight leave tomorrow, so looks like we will be going.

Thanks again

sue

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   Charlotte, North Carolina
   Joined: Aug 2005
   Forum posts: 445
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Posted on: 11:01 am,September 04, 2007
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Another (and probably final) update from Sun Palace Cancun now that Felix has made landfall. Looks like another beautiful day here. Still have red flags on the beach but people are in both the ocean and the pools. Its sunny and hot, waves a little choppier than yesterday but not bad at all right now.

Time to go check out the special drink of the day! Will come back on if anything drastic happens.

Safe travels!. L8R

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   Long Beach, California
   Joined: Sep 2004
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Destination Expert  What's this?
for Cancun
BSQ
Posted on: 11:47 am,September 04, 2007
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this time of year the ocean is almost always red flagged. Still usually swimable, but definitely a strong undertow.

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   St.Louis,Mo
   Joined: Sep 2007
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Posted on: 6:02 pm,September 04, 2007
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we are to arrive on Saturday the 8th in cancun and staying at Moon Palace. will we have any weather problems from Felix? Thanks Ann B. St Louis, Mo.

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   St.Louis,Mo
   Joined: Sep 2007
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Posted on: 6:05 pm,September 04, 2007
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We are arriving in Cancun on Saturday Sept. 8th will there be any problem with the weather from Hurricane Felix? Thanks.

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   In a Little Cafe...
   Joined: Feb 2003
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Destination Expert  What's this?
for Cancun
Dangers
Posted on: 6:51 pm,September 04, 2007
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Ann, you'll be fine, go and enjoy your vacation. ;-)

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www.HiddenWorlds.com Visit Hidden Worlds Cenotes Park 6 Reasons Not to Miss This Place
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www.Hilton.com From only $99 per room, dbl occup. Free Breakfast Included. Book Now!